NFL 2005 Week 9 Predictions

Ah, sweet victory. If I were poetically inclined, I could probably run off a stanza on the joy of victory, but I am not so I cannot. It's good.

Onto this week...

Falcons @ Dolphins
To a great extent, these two teams are well matched. Both have good defenses and both have offenses focused on the run. The Falcons do the run better than anyone, so they will take this low scoring game. Prediction: Falcons.

Lions @ Vikings
This is a crucial game for the Vikings. Their season is at a crossroads, with all the struggles they've had this year, losing their star quarterback for the year (which maybe forcibly achieves what Mike Tice wouldn't do, namely benching Culpepper after such a bad season) gives them a choice. They can either just fold and mail in the rest of the season, or they can rise to the challenge. Which Minnesota team will we see? The underachievers we've seen all year and who now have the excuse of losing Daunte to just give up what little motivation was left, or a team with a chip on its shoulders that wants to put the doubters in their place? The mental aspect is one area I've commented on before as being a weakness for Minnesota, so I'm expecting the former but we'll see. It's not like Brad Johnson has never played a decent game in his career. He was the star in Minnesota a while back. Detroit comes off a disappointing loss to Chicago that cost them an opportunity to take the lead in the division. They are still a decent team, especially with Garcia at the helm. But Harrington is back, for some bizarre reason. That will give the Vikings who care hope. Prediction: Lions.

Raiders @ Chiefs
The Chief defense has folded again, leaving this game a showcase for offense. KC has the better offense, and is tough to beat at home. Prediction: Chiefs.

Titans @ Browns
Don't really know how to pick this one. I think Cleveland should be better than their record, whereas Tennessee is right about where they should be. If Dilfer can get a few good drives in, that should be enough. Prediction: Browns.

Panthers @ Bucs
Carolina, after a stumbling start, is rolling whereas the Bucs, after a rolling start, are stumbling. Having lost Griese for the season, the Buc offense is not as good as it had been wen they were winning. Cadillac Williams, after a strong start, has popped a tire, averaging under 1.5 yards per carry his last two games (one before, one after injury). Pittman is injured. Williams is not getting much done, and has only scored 2 TDs this year anyway. Simms is new and not exactly a scoring machine. Just how will the Bucs score? You know the Panthers will. Prediction: Panthers.

Bengals @ Ravens
The Bengals roll on over a dispirited Baltimore team. Prediction: Bengals.

Texans @ Jaguars
The race is on for the top pick in the draft. With their win last week, and the Packers loss, the Texans now move into a tie for worst record in the league, so they have a chance to avoid the top pick. The biggest problem in Houston since they rejoined the league is a shaky offensive line that gives up far too many sacks. Jacksonville has a strong defensive front to exploit this mercilessly. Prediction: Jaguars.

Chargers @ Jets
This rematch of last year's wildcard playoff game is hardly the opportunity for revenge. The Jets pulled off the upset last year, but this year's team is in pretty bad shape. San Diego will get revenge, but it will be empty against such a lousy team. Prediction: Chargers.

Bears @ Saints
What can I say? I knew I should have gone with the Bears last week over Detroit. I've been impressed with them, but I got carried away with the expectations for Garcia. My momentary delirium has passed. The Bears are the best team in the NFC North, for whatever that's worth. What impressed me most last week was Kyle Orton. He made some pretty good looking throws. He is shaping up to be something of a surprise. It might be hard to go back to Grossman, their first round pick in 2003, when he's healthy. The Saints just go marching on. There's not really all that much to say about them. Prediction: Bears.

Seahawks @ Cardinals
Warner is back for Arizona, one week after I wrote that Coach Green wouldn't bench McCown for a second year in a row. It's not like Warner didn't run the offense well his first stint as the starter. The passing offense was ranked #9 at one time with him at QB. But, he did not put up touchdowns. McCown, on the other hand, did. This matchup between Mike Holmgren and Dennis Green lacks the impact of their regular matchups when Holmgren led the Packers and Green the Vikings. Seattle is getting it all together right now. Arizona plays tough at home so it is tempting to go for the upset, but I don't think Holmgren will let that happen. Prediction: Seahawks.

Giants @ 39ers
OK, I was very sarcastic about San Fran last week, and they go out and win. I'll take my lumps on that one. But this is San Fran we're talking about. Any win is a fluke. The Giants are looking to be a pretty stinkin' good team. Put up 36 points against a very good Washington defense? 200 yards rushing? Shutout an offense that had been doing the things Washington had been doing. It's only one game--and as the 39er-Buc game shows, you can't read too much into one game--but if the Giants can keep playing that well, they could be one of the top teams in the NFC. Prediction: Giants.

Steelers @ Packers
I can still remember when I became a fan of Brett Favre, and with him the Packers. I was raised a Steeler fan and lived the first part of the 90s in Boston. So I knew about the AFC, but not too much about the NFC. In 1994 or 1995, the Packers played the Steelers, in Pittsburgh as I recall. This was early in Brett's career. He was just starting to make a name for himself, but he already had a reputation. This was a brief glory era in Pittsburgh, with a defense littered with Hall of Fame material. In particular, their outside linebackers, Kevin Greene and Greg Lloyd, were the best tandem in the league. (Greene should be a first ballot Hall of Famer, having led the league many times in sacks and finishing just behind Reggie White in career sacks. Lloyd was on his way, but injuries derailed his career, so he ends up in the Terrell Davis category of phenomenal players who just didn't play long enough to make it to the Hall.) Anyway, on one play Favre drops back and Lloyd comes on the rush. Favre gets the pass away, but Lloyd gets a hand on him and pushes him down. He got fined for the hit, but what I remember is Favre's reaction: appreciation of a good hit by an opposing defensive player. Nowadays, everyone is so quick to call for flags. Watch receivers who miss a pass. Their first reaction is to call for an interference flag. Get a hand on the QB? He calls for a roughing the passer flag. Not Favre. He's been one of the few who can really appreciate good defense, even if it's at his expense. Witness his friendship with Warren Sapp over the years when they were in the same division. Anyway, I still remember that story and this week's game is a good time to recount it. Times have changed. The Steelers are yet again a top team in the AFC, but the Packers have the worst record in the league and a tough schedule ahead. I do have to say this. Some are saying Mike Sherman is on the hot seat. The man gets his team, a team in the gutter of the league, out there playing hard every week. Contrast this with the Saints or, maybe now, the Vikings, teams whose players have given up and are just going through the motions. Some of the best coaching comes when a team is losing. I think Sherman is doing a fine job. He's got his team out there competing every week. So many of those losses could have been wins. What about this week? Expect more of the same. The Packers will play tough, and lose. The Steelers are just too good in all facets of the game. They could be better on defense, but they are pretty good. Charlie Batch gets the start at QB, and the Steelers are notably lacking in talent in the backup QB position. But they will compensate with a heavy dose of Willie Parker and Jerome Bettis (does anyone remember Staley?). Prediction: Steelers.

Eagles @ Redskins
The Eagles are just reeling. Two blowout losses in the last three games, and the lone victory coming off a fluke play that's one in a thousand. The offense is the antithesis of balance: top of the league in passing, last in the league in rushing. That said, they are still only a game out of first place in their division. So are the Redskins, and they are a much better team. Excepting the bizarrely bad performance last week, this is a pretty good team. Yes, I did notice that the week I jump back on their bandwagon they get their butts kicked. What can I say? My timing is impeccable. If the Eagles were at full strength, I would have to go with Washington. They are the better team, they are playing at home, and they have the defense to deal with the Eagle passing game. With Owens and McNabb both hurting, it's an even easier pick. Prediction: Redskins.

Colts @ Patriots
Speaking of teams getting revenge for playoff defeats last year, the Colts make another attempt to get that big ol' monkey named Bellichick off their backs. The last two years, Indy has lit up the league and beaten all in their path, except New England. Last year, the Colts began their season failing to avenge their loss in the 2003 AFC title game, and ended the season by falling to New England yet again in the divisional playoffs. There is, of course, a rather significant difference between this game and the previous several: the Patriot secondary is a shadow of its former self. On the other hand, the Colts have become much more of a rushing team, with Peyton Manning not putting up numbers in anywhere near the abundance he has in the past. But against New England, expect the Colts to light it up with an unrelenting aerial attack to exploit the weakness of the Patriot secondary. New England has a pretty good offense of its own, facing a better Colt defense. Actually, I'm not so impressed with the Colt defense of late. Not that they are not good, it's just that the impression left by their overwhelming dominance early in the season has faded. They are looking more like a very good defense, rather than one for the ages. In the end, the Colt defense is better than New England's, and the Colt offense is better than New England's. One cannot discount the psychological element, specifically all those Indy memories of seasons going up in smoke in Foxboro, but I think the Colts are professional enough to not let those get to them. Prediction: Colts.

Last Week: 10-4
Season: 64-52